You Ain’t Got No problems, Jules...Wait for The Wolf, Who Should be Comin‘ Directly.
Less Certainty More Inquiry
I, ahem, borrowed this phrase from Maria Konnikova. She makes no qualms that she got it from poker hall of famer, Erik Seidel. Ms. Konnikova was a notable psychologist and author when she decided she would also like to be a better poker player. Through a little luck, a little guile, she got one of the best, the aforementioned Mr. Seidel, to be her mentor. His basic advice: Less Certainty, More Inquiry. At the poker table, it meant essentially, think before you act. Good poker players may go “in the tank”, raking their brains about what has just happened in order to make one of three decisions. Raise. Call. Fold. Away from the poker table, our course of actions may not be as simple. Yes, often it is act or don’t act, but the fine print wouldn’t run on for pages if there were not a lot of choices in between. And where you end up should rely less on certainty and more on inquiry.
But that’s a picture of the gangster Marcellus Wallace. And this is a post about Pulp Fiction. I’m damn certain that Casablanca is the best movie ever and will always be my favorite. I can watch Rainman at least 30 times a year; Risky Business other than that is my formative years. Yet also high up in my pantheon is Quentin Tarrantino’s disturbing take on redemption. Yes it has amazing, memorable dialogue. Yes, the music is incredible (who knew Neil Diamond was cool). Yes, it has the Wolf. I was about five years into my career as a business researcher and due diligence specialist when I got my role model. I’m Winston Wolf. I solve problems.
Except the moment that speaks to me is not when the Wolf shows up; gets down to brass tacks, explains he has to think fast, talk fast or even opine on the worth of oak furniture. It’s before we see his notepad and Gucci watch. It’s when Jules is instantly calmed with a few words, “wait for the Wolf.” That was what I aspired to be.
Less certainty. More inquiry. I only got the phrase in 2020. Yet, there it was staring at me in 1994. Mr. Wolf writes it down so he gets the particulars right from the start. Then, before settling into the plan he does his research, “about the car, anything I should know…” Mr. Wolf knows that to solve problems, you inquire. The more you know, the more you can be certain. Jules was certain the situation would be handled when he was told the Wolf was coming. We get to see why.
I recently submitted a nine page memorandum to a client. On the previous project for this same client, I went on for over 30 pages. Both to support investment due diligence. In one instance, inquiry required the checking of public records in a few states as well as the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico. The other required digging into the track record of many different companies, some public, some private, going all the way back to the 1980’s. There is no right or exact answer on the equation between inquiry and certainty. On another page on my website, I lay out the following to help guide your level of certainty:
RISK BASED APPROACH
Plan and conduct each assignment based on the risks present in that case. Then, identify the risks from information provided by you as well as our long experience conducting business background research. Risks include:
● Nature of the industry
● Business structure
● Business history
● How much information is known about management
● Prior disclosures
I also note on our approach, that “In addition to identifying risks at the onset, we reveal latent risks uncovered during our searches.” In other words, the more you know, the less certain you may become. There may be new issues to explore. New parties to research. Documents to obtain to get more details. In the Bonnie Situation, they had “forty minutes to get the [bleep] outta Dodge, which, if you
do what I say when I say it, should be plenty.” In most of my situations, you have a little longer. Still, if you make the necessary inquiries, it should be plenty.